Before I talk about Prabowo, let me take you back to 2016 when the Jakarta regional elections began. At that time, there were three pairs of candidates, namely AHY-Sylvi, Ahok-Djarot, and Anies-Sandiaga.
In December 2016, Kompas Research conducted a survey on the electability of the three pairs of candidates. The results showed that AHY-Sylvi came out on top with 37.1 percent of the vote. Ahok-Djarot received 33 percent of the vote, and Anies-Sandiaga only got 19.5 percent. The swing voters, who had not yet decided, accounted for 10.4 percent.
Taking into account the margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percent, the potential electability of AHY-Sylvi still overlapped with the potential electability of Ahok-Djarot.
But who would have thought that the results of the first round of the election would be the opposite. According to the recapitulation of the Jakarta KPUD, AHY-Sylvi only received 17.02 percent of the vote, Ahok-Djarot received 42.99 percent, and Anies-Sandiaga received 39.95 percent. No one received more than 50 percent, so there had to be a second round and AHY-Sylvi had to go home.
The question is, why did the initially high electability plummet in the first round? The result was very drastic, from an electability of 37.1 percent to a result in the field of only 17.02 percent.
I personally don’t know if it was a survey error or what, but there is one specific reason that I think was a blunder. It was during the gubernatorial and vice-gubernatorial debate for the Jakarta regional elections.
The survey was conducted in December 2016, and the first debate for the Jakarta regional elections was on January 13, 2017.
If you remember the debate at that time, who was the most unclear and made the most blunders? It was definitely AHY-Sylvi. Anies-Sandiaga only sold rhetoric and Anies’ expertise in selling dreams. AHY was not good at speaking, his program was not very clear, and he had zero experience in politics. The result was a boomerang.
AHY’s ability was clearly seen during the debate, and the public opened their eyes. AHY was very popular before the debate because he was a young and handsome candidate. Many women were attracted to him because of his good looks. However, during the debate, many were disappointed. It turned out that his good looks did not match his abilities. In my opinion, this is understandable because AHY had just come out of the military and was immediately thrown into the race for governor. He was like a junior high school student who was forced to enter high school and had to learn the entrance exam overnight. Of course, he wouldn’t pass.
Now, what happened to AHY in the Jakarta regional elections could happen to Prabowo in the 2024 presidential election?
In many surveys, Prabowo-Gibran always sit in the first position, even the gap in electability numbers with other presidential candidates is very far and uneven. But you already know why it can be like that. Many have talked about the surveys and the field that have been conditioned in such a way. However, in my opinion, if it is really pure and natural, Prabowo-Gibran is not as bombastic as that.
In the first debate last Tuesday, you also saw Prabowo’s performance. How much score would you give to Prabowo? This situation is exactly the same as what happened in the first debate of the Jakarta regional elections. Prabowo was overwhelmed in defending himself from attacks from other presidential candidates until his emotions exploded. On the other hand, Gibran also provoked by becoming like a cheerleader who violated the debate rules.
What do you think?
Source: Nasib Prabowo Bisa Mirip AHY di Pilkada DKI wRd3WYxrZh (seword.com)